Fibonacci in Scrum: The Secret to Better Estimations

Remember when I promised to share our unconventional approach to estimations in Scrum? Well, grab your coffee, because today we're diving into one of the most heated topics in Agile: story point estimation using the Fibonacci sequence.

The Fibonacci What Now?

For those who dozed off in math class (no judgment here), the Fibonacci sequence goes like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34... Each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. But why on earth would we use this for estimations?

Here's the kicker: it's not about the numbers themselves but the gaps between them.

The Magic is in the Gaps

In my early days as a Scrum Master, I watched teams agonize over whether a story was a 6 or a 7. The debates were endless, and the estimations? Well, let's just say they were about as accurate as my weather app.

That's when we introduced Fibonacci estimation. Here's why it works:

1. It acknowledges uncertainty: As the numbers get bigger, so do the gaps between them. This beautifully mirrors the increasing uncertainty in larger, more complex tasks.
2. It forces meaningful discussions: When you're choosing between 5 and 8 points, you're forced to really think about the complexity.
3. It speeds up the process: With fewer options, teams make decisions faster. No more endless debates over 6 vs 7.

Real-World Impact

We had a team in our São Paulo office that was consistently underestimating their work. Sprints were turning into marathons, and morale was at an all-time low.

We introduced Fibonacci estimation, and the change was dramatic. Not only did their estimations become more accurate, but their planning meetings went from two-hour slogs to focused 45-minute sessions.

How to Implement It

1. Start small: Use 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 for your first few sessions. You can add 13 and 21 later if needed.
2. Create a reference story: Pick a story everyone agrees is a "3" and use it as a baseline.
3. Compare, don't calculate: "Is this story bigger than our 3? Smaller? About the same?"
4. Embrace uncertainty: If you're debating between 8 and 13, it's probably a 13. When in doubt, go higher.
5. Review and adjust: Use your sprint retrospectives to see how accurate your estimations were and adjust accordingly.

The Bigger Picture

Remember, the goal here isn't a perfect prediction. It's about creating a shared understanding of the work ahead and improving over time. Fibonacci estimation is just one tool in your Agile toolkit, but it's one that can have a massive impact on your team's productivity and morale.