Fibonacci in Scrum: The Secret to Better Estimations

Remember when I promised to share our unconventional approach to estimations in Scrum? Well, grab your coffee (or your favorite caffeinated beverage), because today we’re diving into one of the most heated topics in Agile: story point estimation using the Fibonacci sequence.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. “Joel, have you lost it? We’re software engineers, not mathematicians!” Trust me, I had the same reaction when I first encountered this concept. But after implementing it with teams from São Paulo to Silicon Valley, I can confidently say it’s a game-changer.

The Fibonacci What Now?

For those who dozed off in math class (no judgment here), the Fibonacci sequence goes like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34… Each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. But why on earth would we use this for estimations?

Here’s the kicker: it’s not about the numbers themselves but the gaps between them.

The Magic is in the Gaps

In my early days as a Scrum Master, I watched teams agonize over whether a story was a 6 or a 7. The debates were endless, and the estimations? Well, let’s just say they were about as accurate as my weather app.

That’s when we introduced Fibonacci estimation. Here’s why it works:

1. It acknowledges uncertainty: As the numbers get bigger, so do the gaps between them. This beautifully mirrors the increasing uncertainty in larger, more complex tasks.

2. It forces meaningful discussions: When you’re choosing between 5 and 8 points, you’re forced to really think about the complexity. Is it really that much bigger? This leads to more insightful conversations about the work.

3. It speeds up the process: With fewer options, teams make decisions faster. No more endless debates over 6 vs 7.

Real-World Impact

Let me share a quick story. We had a team in our São Paulo office that was consistently underestimating their work. Sprints were turning into marathons, and morale was at an all-time low.

We introduced Fibonacci estimation, and the change was dramatic. Not only did their estimations become more accurate, but their planning meetings went from two-hour slogs to focused 45-minute sessions. One developer told me, “It’s like we’ve gone from guessing to actually understanding our work.”

How to Implement It

Ready to give it a try? Here’s a quick guide:

1. Start small: Use 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 for your first few sessions. You can add 13 and 21 later if needed.

2. Create a reference story: Pick a story everyone agrees is a “3” and use it as a baseline.

3. Compare, don’t calculate: “Is this story bigger than our 3? Smaller? About the same?”

4. Embrace uncertainty: If you’re debating between 8 and 13, it’s probably a 13. When in doubt, go higher.

5. Review and adjust: Use your sprint retrospectives to see how accurate your estimations were and adjust accordingly.

Now, I won’t pretend this method is perfect. I’ve had my fair share of skeptics (and still do). But in my experience, it’s the most effective way to balance accuracy with efficiency in estimations.

The Bigger Picture

Remember, the goal here isn’t a perfect prediction. It’s about creating a shared understanding of the work ahead and improving over time. Fibonacci estimation is just one tool in your Agile toolkit, but it’s one that can have a massive impact on your team’s productivity and morale.

So, what do you think? Ready to bring a little mathematical magic to your Scrum process? I’d love to hear your thoughts, experiences, or burning questions. Hit me up on LinkedIn.

And hey, if you want to dive deeper into this topic (or just hear me try to explain Fibonacci after a couple of beers), don’t forget to check out the latest episode of “Beer with the Boss” where we tackle this very subject.

Until next time, keep iterating, keep improving, and most importantly, keep having fun with it. After all, that’s what Agile is all about!

Stay Fibonacci-fabulous, my friends!